Did the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Reduce Profit Shifting by US Multinational Companies?

The 2017 Tax Cut and Jobs Act reduced the US corporate tax rate and introduced provisions to curb profit shifting. We combine survey data, tax data, and firm financial statements to study the evolution of the geographical allocation of US firms’ profits after the reform. The share of profits booked abroad by US multinationals fell 3–5 percentage points, driven by repatriations of intellectual property to the US. The share of foreign profits booked in tax havens remained stable around 50% between 2015 and 2020. Changes in the global allocation of profits are small overall, but some firms responded strongly.

Tax Planning by European Banks

This paper explores profit shifting behaviour by European banks through a newly available data source. Financial institutions as of 2014 started disclosing their activity on a country-by-country level following the CRDIV EU Directive. The country-by-country reporting (CbCR) requires European banks to file their revenues, profits, number of employees and taxes paid in all countries where they operate including tax haven countries. In this paper, I construct the database for bank CbCR from the banks filings and annual reports. The database includes 51 European banks headquartered in 18 different European countries between 2014 and 2020. I use the database to study profit shifting arising from international tax differences between countries. I find that the banks’ profits are sensitive to the tax rate suggesting that banks lower their tax burden through their affiliates. The size of banks seems to have an effect, the larger the bank group, the more it might engage in tax planning. Profit shifting is estimated by using the tax differential methodology. The findings show that profit shifting by the top European banks is around 4-3% percent of the total profits booked abroad. This implies tax revenue losses of up to 3-2%. The introduction of a global minimum tax of 15% would generate between 300 to 2 billion euros depending on the final rules implemented.

Who Owns Offshore Real Estate? Evidence from Dubai

We use novel leaked microdata to study offshore real estate in Dubai, a fast-growing tax haven. We find that the non-resident ownership share of residential real estate grew from nearly zero in 2005 to 30% ($68 billion) in 2019, a share much larger than other large global cities. We then go on to show that offshore real estate displays a strong gravity relationship and is more frequently owned at the upper end of the wealth distribution. Finally, we document that both tax evasion (with an 80% evasion rate) and sanctions driven capital flight are important motives for owning offshore real estate.

Effective sanctions against oligarchs and the role of a European Asset Registry

This note provides data on wealth inequality in Russia and advocates for a European Asset Registry. Russia exhibits the highest wealth inequality in Europe. Further, Russia’s wealthiest nationals conceal a large share of their wealth through tax havens. The current architecture of the global financial system impedes comprehensive knowledge on beneficial ownership across asset types and jurisdictions.

Under the roof of a European Asset Registry, the already existing but currently dispersed information could be gathered. This would change the state of play, resulting in better-targeted sanctions and effective tools to curb money laundering, corruption and tax evasion.

The European Union could have a pioneering role in taking the next step towards more financial transparency.

New Forms of Tax Competition: An Empirical Investigation

This report provides an empirical analysis of personal and corporate tax competition in the European Union. We find that tax competition increasingly takes the form of preferential or narrowly targeted tax regimes on top of general rate cuts. We provide a ranking of the most harmful regimes targeting foreign, primarily highincome or high-wealth individuals. We also discuss several options to address these trends.

The evolution of tax competition in the European Union may be summarized as follows. While corporate tax rates are still on a downward trend, the decline of top statutory personal income tax rates has stopped since the financial crisis of 2008–2009. In the meantime, many new preferential regimes have been introduced into the personal income tax systems of member states. Many base-narrowing measures also contribute to lowering corporate tax burdens. By targeting the most mobile parts of the tax base – high-income earners and multinational enterprises – these tax incentives undermine effective revenue collection in the European Union and weaken the horizontal and vertical equity of tax systems.

The most striking trend in EU tax competition is the increase in the number of personal income tax schemes targeting foreign individuals. The number of such regimes has increased from 5 in 1995 to 28 today. A tentative ranking suggests that the most harmful ones are the Italian and Greek high-net-worth individual regimes, Cyprus’ high-income regime and the pension regimes of Cyprus, Greece and Portugal. These regimes exhibit long periods of duration, provide significant tax advantages, specifically target very high-income individuals or do not require any real economic activity in a given member state. At present, preferential regimes apply to over 200,000 beneficiaries. A lower-bound estimation suggests that the total fiscal costs for the European Union amount to EUR 4.5 billion per year. This sum is equivalent e.g. to the annual budget of the entire Erasmus programme.

Member states also apply numerous base-narrowing measures which have the potential to significantly lower the effective tax rate of multinationals. Public financing of corporate research and development has increased in recent decades and has increasingly taken the form of tax incentives. A total of 14 intellectual property regimes in the EU are currently designed to tax income associated with patents, software and similar intangible assets at rates of 15% or less (10% or less in half of these cases). Six countries have adopted regimes of notional interest deduction; the Maltese and Cypriot regimes seem exceptionally generous. Approximately 1,348 unilateral tax rulings concerning multinationals’ tax arrangements were in force in 2019. The implications of these rulings for revenue collection are still unknown to the public.

The trends uncovered by this report may be addressed in several ways, e.g. by reforming the Code of Conduct and transforming it into a binding instrument – and extending its mandate to personal income taxation as well as to non-preferential corporate tax regimes that lead to generally low levels of taxation of multinationals. In the absence of a coordinated approach (which is always the ideal solution), member states might consider unilaterally taxing their expatriates, which, under some conditions, may mitigate the effects of preferential personal income tax regimes. A comprehensive implementation of the global corporate minimum tax agreed in October 2021, with minimal carveouts and limited deductions for research and development, could provide an effective floor for the EU’s race to the bottom in corporate taxation.

 

Have European Banks Left Tax Havens? Evidence from Country-by-Country Data

This report documents the activity of European banks in tax havens and how this activity has evolved since 2014.

The analysis covers 36 systemic European banks that have been required to publicly report country-by-country data on their activities since 2014. We study the level and evolution of the profits booked by these banks in tax havens over the 2014-2020 period. We also compute their effective tax rates and their tax deficit—defined as the difference between what these banks currently pay in taxes and what they would pay if they were subject to a minimum effective tax rate in each country.

 

 

Collecting the Tax Deficit of Multinational Companies: Simulations for the EU

This report estimates the amount of tax revenue that the EU could raise by imposing a minimum tax on the profits of multinational companies.

The study considers several scenarios for the imposition of such a tax — ranging from an international tax agreement to unilateral measures — and a range of rates.

An international agreement on a minimum rate of 25% would allow the European Union to increase its tax revenues by 170 billion in 2021, an increase of 50% of the corporate tax revenue collected today. With a minimum rate of 15%, the additional tax revenue would only amount to about 50 billion euros.

An EU country that unilaterally chose to subject its multinationals to a minimum rate of 25% and taxed part of the tax deficit of non-resident companies accessing its market would increase its corporate tax revenues by around 70%.

Supplementary material:

Simulation website: compute the tax deficit of multinational companies and simulate its collection

Replication archive for the report

GitHub repository for the report