Publications

Working Paper

19.12.2024

Profit Shifting and International Tax Reforms

By Alessandro Ferrari, Sébastien Laffitte, Mathieu Parenti, and Farid Toubal

We propose a model of corporate tax avoidance that separates profits generated by real economic activities from paper profits shifted to tax havens. The model introduces ’triangle identities’ to estimate bilateral profit-shifting flows.

Working Paper

24.07.2024

Taxing Capital in a Globalized World: The Effects of Automatic Information Exchange

By Hjalte Fejerskov Boas, Niels Johannesen, Claus Thustrup Kreiner, Lauge Larsen, and Gabriel Zucman

The working paper studies the effects of automatic information exchange on tax compliance by analyzing the universe of information reports sent by foreign banks to Danish authorities, matched to population-wide micro-data on income, wealth, and cross-border bank transfers.

Note

18.07.2024

Australian Public CbCR: filling the gaps?

By Giulia Aliprandi

The note estimates that approximately 50% of large US companies and a significant portion of multinationals from countries like China, Japan, and Germany will potentially have to disclose information on their tax haven presence.

Report

25.06.2024

A blueprint for a coordinated minimum effective taxation standard for ultra-high-net-worth individuals

By Gabriel Zucman

This report presents a proposal for an internationally coordinated standard ensuring an effective taxation of ultra-high-net-worth individuals.

Note

13.06.2024

The Mystery of Anonymous Investment in US Real Estate

By Matt Collin, Karan Mishra, and Andreas Økland

This note addresses the significant concerns associated with anonymous real estate ownership in the United States, highlighting how a considerable amount of property, including residential real estate, is held via corporate entities that conceal the true owners.

Report

06.06.2024

Advancing Corporate Tax Transparency

By Giulia Aliprandi

This report examines the current landscape of corporate tax transparency and evaluates how emerging transparency measures could shape future developments in this critical area.

Note

15.05.2024

Foreign investment in the Dubai housing market, 2020-2024

By Annette Alstadsæter, Matt Collin, Bluebery Planterose, Gabriel Zucman, and Andreas Økland

This note presents new evidence on the scale of foreign investment in the Dubai residential property market. Using new data comprising the ownership of a large share of the Dubai property market, we present updated estimates of foreign-owned real estate for the years 2020 and 2022.

Working Paper

22.03.2024

All that glitters? Golden visas and real estate

By João Pereira dos Santos, and Kristina Strohmaier

In this paper, we study the extent to which “golden visas” impact real estate housing markets. Using the population of transactions records from 2007 to 2019, we analyse the introduction of the Golden Visa Program in Portugal in 2012.

Working Paper

07.03.2024

The Market for Tax Havens

By Sébastien Laffitte

This paper investigates the determinants and consequences of the development of tax havens using a novel database that tracks the creation and development of offshore institutions in 48 tax havens.

Working Paper

15.02.2024

Employment Effects of a Weakening in European Anti-Tax Avoidance Rules: evidence from France

By Margarita Lopez Forero, and Benjamin Michallet

This paper provides causal evidence on how multinational enterprises’ (MNEs) presence in tax havens translates into job cuts in France following the 2006 European Court of Justice (ECJ) judgement on the Cadbury-Schweppes case, which weakened member States’ controlled foreign company rules (CFC).

Note

21.12.2023

Mapping the global geography of shell companies

By Giulia Aliprandi, Thijs Busschots, and Carlos Oliveira

This note examines the global prevalence and distribution of shell companies, which are often used for
illicit financial activities like tax evasion.

Working Paper

15.12.2023

Consumption Taxes and Corporate Income Taxes: Evidence from Place-Based VAT

By Jules Ducept, Evangelos Koumanakos, and Panayiotis Nicolaides

This working paper looks at the responses of corporations in the Greek Islands to an increase in the VAT rate from 16% to 24%. Declared profits decreased by 28% and corporate income taxes by 34%. Tax evasion opportunities offer a plausible explanation of the response.

Report

22.10.2023

Global Tax Evasion Report 2024

By Annette Alstadsæter, Sarah Godar, Panayiotis Nicolaides, and Gabriel Zucman

An unprecedented research collaboration investigating the successes and failures of the fight against tax evasion over the last decade, building on the work of more than 100 researchers globally.

Note

13.07.2023

The Long Road to Pillar One Implementation: Impact of Global Minimum Thresholds for Key Countries on the Effective Implementation of the Reform

By Mona Barake, Elvin Le Pouhaër, and Quentin Parrinello

This note examines the impact of the recent introduction of minimum thresholds for the global implementation of the OECD/G20 Pillar One reform for key countries in the context of the negotiations.

Note

04.07.2023

Who Will Pay the National Contribution on Operating Surplus?

By Quentin Parrinello

This note discusses the perimeter and provides country-by-country revenue estimates for this new proposal.

Working Paper

15.06.2023

The Compliance Effects of the Automatic Exchange of Information: Evidence from the Swiss Tax Amnesty

By Enea Baselgia

This paper studies how the introduction of multilateral automatic exchange of information (AEOI) in 2017 affects tax compliance.

Working Paper

12.06.2023

Fiscal Consequences of Corporate Tax Avoidance

By Katarzyna Bilicka, Evgeniya Dubinina, and Petr Jansky

This paper studies the consequences of multinational tax avoidance on the structure of government tax revenues.

Note

05.06.2023

Digital Service Taxes

By Sofía Balladares Herbert, Mona Barake, and Enea Baselgia

Digital Service Taxes (DSTs) are a recently introduced fiscal tool designed to tax digital companies. This note collects all publicly available data to take stock of the first few years of DST implementation.

Working Paper

11.05.2023

Benchmarking Country-by-Country Reports

By Giulia Aliprandi, and Gerrit von Zedlitz

In this paper, we conduct a benchmark analysis focusing on publicly available Country-by-Country Reports to assess the reliability of CbCR information compared to respective consolidated financial information.

Working Paper

10.05.2023

Corporate Tax Avoidance and Sales: Micro Evidence and Aggregate Implications

By Julien Martin, Mathieu Parenti, and Farid Toubal

This paper investigates the influence of corporate tax avoidance (CTA) on firm-level sales, and its aggregate implications.

Working Paper

12.04.2023

Tax Avoidance and the Complexity of Multinational Enterprises

By Manon François, and Vincent Vicard

Does the complexity of the ownership structure of multinational enterprises’ (MNEs) enable tax avoidance?

Working Paper

03.04.2023

Effective Tax Rates and Firm Size

By Pierre Bachas, Anne Brockmeyer, Roel Dom, and Camille Semelet

This paper provides novel evidence on the relationship between firm size and effective corporate tax rates using full-population administrative tax data from 13 countries.

Working Paper

27.03.2023

Tax Revenue from Pillar One Amount A: Country-by-Country Estimates

By Mona Barake, and Elvin Le Pouhaër

This paper presents simulations of the tax revenue arising from the Pillar One Amount A proposal of the G20/OECD Inclusive Framework on Base Erosion and Profit Shifting.

Working Paper

13.03.2023

Does A Progressive Wealth Tax Reduce Top Wealth Inequality? Evidence From Switzerland

By Samira Marti, Isabel Z. Martínez, and Florian Scheuer

Like in many other countries, wealth inequality has increased in Switzerland over the last fifty years. By providing new evidence on cantonal top wealth shares for each of the 26 cantons since 1969, we show that the overall trend masks striking differences across cantons, both in levels and trends.

Data Documentation

28.02.2023

Public Country-by-Country Reports: A New Dataset

By Giulia Aliprandi, Francisco Gabriel, and Gerrit von Zedlitz

In this note, we introduce the Public CbCRs database, a novel dataset comprising information on the country-level distribution of key tax-related financial items such as profit, taxes, and activities of over 100 large multinationals.

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Note

23.02.2023

Tax Transparency by Multinationals: Trends in Country-by-Country Reports Public Disclosure

By Giulia Aliprandi

Country-by-Country Reporting is a key data source for understanding the activities of multinational firms. This note explores public Country-by-Country Reports (CbCRs) published by multinational companies to highlight several important trends.

Working Paper

09.02.2023

Behavioral Responses to Special Tax Regimes for the Super - Rich: Insights from Swiss Rich Lists

By Enea Baselgia, and Isabel Z. Martínez

We collect, digitize, and supplement Swiss rich lists published in the “BILANZ” business magazine since 1989, to gain new insights on the structure and dynamics of top wealth in Switzerland.

Working Paper

08.12.2022

The Long Way to Tax Transparency: Lessons from the Early Publishers of Country-by-Country Reports

By Giulia Aliprandi, Tommaso Faccio, Sarah Godar, Petr Jansky, and Katia Toledo Ruiz

In this paper, we analyse a sample of voluntarily published country-by-country reports (CbCRs) of 35 multinational enterprises (MNEs).

Working Paper

05.12.2022

Tax Planning by European Banks

By Mona Barake

This paper explores profit shifting behaviour by European banks through a newly available data source. Financial institutions as of 2014 started disclosing their activity on a country-by-country level following the CRDIV EU Directive.

Working Paper

02.12.2022

Increasing Cross-Border Ownership of Real Estate: Evidence from Norway

By Annette Alstadsæter, and Andreas Økland

This paper is the first to estimate the full extent of foreign-owned commercial and residential real estate in a country, including both direct and indirect ownership.

Working Paper

01.12.2022

Global Profit Shifting, 1975 - 2019

By Ludvig Wier, and Gabriel Zucman

This paper constructs time series of global profit shifting covering the 2015–19 period, during which major international efforts were implemented to curb profit shifting.

Note

14.11.2022

A Modern Excess Profit Tax

By Manon François, Carlos Oliveira, Bluebery Planterose, and Gabriel Zucman

This note presents a new way to tax excess profits. We propose to tax the rise in the stock market capitalization of companies that benefit from extraordinary circumstances, such as energy firms following the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Working Paper

17.10.2022

Revealing 21% of GDP in Hidden Assets: Evidence from Argentina’s Tax Amnesty

By Juliana Londoño-Vélez, and Dario Tortarolo

The paper studies the effectiveness of tax amnesties and their impacts on capital taxation and public spending. We leverage rich policy variation from Argentina, which implemented the world’s most successful program, reportedly revealing assets worth 21% of GDP.

Working Paper

28.09.2022

A Modern Excess Profit Tax

By Manon François, Carlos Oliveira, Bluebery Planterose, and Gabriel Zucman

This paper presents a new way to tax excess profits. We propose to tax the rise in the stock market capitalization of companies that benefit from extraordinary circumstances, such as energy firms following the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Proceedings

12.07.2022

Summary - Tax Avoidance and Offshore Wealth: Policies for Tomorrow

A landmark annual event in tax evasion and tax avoidance policy, the event sought to review past developments, study new evidence, and project policy to the future.

Working Paper

17.06.2022

Will We Ever Be Able to Track Offshore Wealth? Evidence from the Offshore Real Estate Market in the UK

By Jeanne Bomare, and Ségal Le Guern Herry

This paper provides evidence of the growing importance of real estate assets in offshore portfolios.

Working Paper

17.06.2022

Did the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Reduce Profit Shifting by US Multinational Companies?

By Javier Garcia-Bernardo, Petr Jansky, and Gabriel Zucman

The 2017 Tax Cut and Jobs Act reduced the US corporate tax rate and introduced provisions to curb profit shifting. We combine survey data, tax data, and firm financial statements to study the evolution of the geographical allocation of US firms’ profits after the reform.

Working Paper

09.05.2022

Pennies from Haven: Wages and Profit Shifting

By Annette Alstadsæter, Julie Brun Bjørkheim, Ronald B. Davies, and Johannes Scheuerer

Increasing attention has been given to the fact that some multinational enterprises shift income to tax haven countries, an activity that generates inequality in corporate taxation. This article examines how profit shifting relates to wage inequality.

Working Paper

02.05.2022

Who Owns Offshore Real Estate? Evidence from Dubai

By Annette Alstadsæter, Bluebery Planterose, Gabriel Zucman, and Andreas Økland

New data capturing the ownership of about 800,000 properties in Dubai offer a unique window into cross-border real estate investments.

Note

16.03.2022

Effective sanctions against oligarchs and the role of a European Asset Registry

By Lucas Chancel, Theresa Neef, Panayiotis Nicolaides, Thomas Piketty, and Gabriel Zucman

This note provides data on wealth inequality in Russia and advocates for a European Asset Registry. A European Asset Registry would change the state of play, resulting in better-targeted sanctions and effective tools to curb money laundering, corruption and tax evasion.

Report

07.11.2021

New Forms of Tax Competition: An Empirical Investigation

By Eloi Flamant, Sarah Godar, and Gaspard Richard

This report provides an empirical analysis of tax competition between individuals and companies in the European Union, by ranking the most harmful tax regimes. It also proposes several options to address these trends.

Note

25.10.2021

Revenue Effects of the Global Minimum Tax: Country-by-Country Estimates

By Mona Barake, Paul-Emmanuel Chouc, Theresa Neef, and Gabriel Zucman

In October 2021, 136 countries and jurisdictions agreed on the swift implementation of a major reform of the international corporate tax system. In this note, we present simulations of the revenue effects of the global minimum tax of 15% laid out in this agreement.

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Note

07.10.2021

European tax evasion in the light of the Pandora Papers

To fully understand the significance of the Pandora Papers, it is useful to put them into perspective based on the most recent economic research, the international efforts in place to reduce offshore fraud, and future avenues to achieve greater fiscal transparency.

Report

06.09.2021

Have European Banks Left Tax Havens? Evidence from Country-by-Country Data

By Giulia Aliprandi, Mona Barake, and Paul-Emmanuel Chouc

The main European banks book EUR 20 billion (or 14% of their total profits) in tax havens each year. This percentage has been stable since 2014.

Note

21.07.2021

Minimizing the Minimum Tax? The Critical Effect of Substance Carve-Outs

By Mona Barake, Paul-Emmanuel Chouc, Theresa Neef, and Gabriel Zucman

In July 2021, 132 countries agreed to a minimum tax rate of at least 15% on their multinationals’ profits. However, the joint statement included a provision that could substantially reduce the effectiveness of this policy : the exemption of substance-based carve-outs.

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Report

01.06.2021

Collecting the Tax Deficit of Multinational Companies: Simulations for the EU

By Mona Barake, Paul-Emmanuel Chouc, Theresa Neef, and Gabriel Zucman

The European Union could increase corporate tax revenues by €170 billion with a 25% minimum tax.

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Our publications

Publications

Profit Shifting and International Tax Reforms

Taxing Capital in a Globalized World: The Effects of Automatic Information Exchange

Australian Public CbCR: filling the gaps?

A blueprint for a coordinated minimum effective taxation standard for ultra-high-net-worth individuals

The Mystery of Anonymous Investment in US Real Estate

Advancing Corporate Tax Transparency

Foreign investment in the Dubai housing market, 2020-2024

All that glitters? Golden visas and real estate

The Market for Tax Havens

Employment Effects of a Weakening in European Anti-Tax Avoidance Rules: evidence from France

Mapping the global geography of shell companies

Consumption Taxes and Corporate Income Taxes: Evidence from Place-Based VAT

Global Tax Evasion Report 2024

The Long Road to Pillar One Implementation: Impact of Global Minimum Thresholds for Key Countries on the Effective Implementation of the Reform

Who Will Pay the National Contribution on Operating Surplus?

The Compliance Effects of the Automatic Exchange of Information: Evidence from the Swiss Tax Amnesty

Fiscal Consequences of Corporate Tax Avoidance

Digital Service Taxes

Benchmarking Country-by-Country Reports

Corporate Tax Avoidance and Sales: Micro Evidence and Aggregate Implications

Tax Avoidance and the Complexity of Multinational Enterprises

Effective Tax Rates and Firm Size

Tax Revenue from Pillar One Amount A: Country-by-Country Estimates

Does A Progressive Wealth Tax Reduce Top Wealth Inequality? Evidence From Switzerland

Public Country-by-Country Reports: A New Dataset

Tax Transparency by Multinationals: Trends in Country-by-Country Reports Public Disclosure

Behavioral Responses to Special Tax Regimes for the Super - Rich: Insights from Swiss Rich Lists

The Long Way to Tax Transparency: Lessons from the Early Publishers of Country-by-Country Reports

Tax Planning by European Banks

Increasing Cross-Border Ownership of Real Estate: Evidence from Norway

Global Profit Shifting, 1975 - 2019

A Modern Excess Profit Tax

Revealing 21% of GDP in Hidden Assets: Evidence from Argentina’s Tax Amnesty

A Modern Excess Profit Tax

Summary - Tax Avoidance and Offshore Wealth: Policies for Tomorrow

Will We Ever Be Able to Track Offshore Wealth? Evidence from the Offshore Real Estate Market in the UK

Did the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Reduce Profit Shifting by US Multinational Companies?

Pennies from Haven: Wages and Profit Shifting

Who Owns Offshore Real Estate? Evidence from Dubai

Effective sanctions against oligarchs and the role of a European Asset Registry

New Forms of Tax Competition: An Empirical Investigation

Revenue Effects of the Global Minimum Tax: Country-by-Country Estimates

European tax evasion in the light of the Pandora Papers

Have European Banks Left Tax Havens? Evidence from Country-by-Country Data

Minimizing the Minimum Tax? The Critical Effect of Substance Carve-Outs

Collecting the Tax Deficit of Multinational Companies: Simulations for the EU

Working papers

All that glitters? Golden visas and real estate

The Market for Tax Havens

Employment Effects of a Weakening in European Anti-Tax Avoidance Rules: evidence from France

Consumption Taxes and Corporate Income Taxes: Evidence from Place-Based VAT

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